Chasing the Black Swan

Malcolm Jones

doi:10.56094/jss.v54i3.63

Authors

Malcolm Jones Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56094/jss.v54i3.63

Keywords:

black swan, human factors, independence, assurance

Abstract

The term “Black Swan” is a familiar concept in the context of high-consequence operations. There is the continual concern that there may be an “as yet” undiscovered flaw or lack of understanding in the design of a product, process or facility that could lead to a catastrophic event. The potential incompleteness in understanding any design concept, implementation and associated assessment is of concern. Given that “absolute confidence” may never be possible, the question becomes how best to continue to search for such possible flaws with a view to subsequent removal or mitigation. At first sight, this appears to be a process without end, but the level of commitment must be balanced against any detrimental consequence that could ensue should a Black Swan exist. But when is “enough is enough?” In this paper, this subject is covered in the context of nuclear warheads, where the Black Swan could indeed be catastrophic should it exist. The paper is framed around what can be learned from the general literature associated with “Black Swan” thinking.

Author Biography

Malcolm Jones, Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE)

Malcolm Jones has previously led the Distinguished Scientists group at the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE). He currently holds the position of Scientific Adviser to AWE’s Chief Scientist and directly supports AWE’s Chief of Product Assurance. His career at AWE has taken him through a wide range of scientific and engineering topics, but he has maintained a continuous association with nuclear weapon design and process safety and top-level nuclear safety standards. His interests extend to corporate safety cultures and the root-cause reasons for failures. He is a Fellow of the International System Safety Society and is an adviser to a number of senior U.K. Ministry of Defence and AWE safety bodies. He has been awarded an MBE in the Queen’s Birthday Honours List for contributions to the U.K. defense industry and is a recipient of the John Challens’ Medal, which is AWE’s highest award for lifetime contributions to science, engineering and technology. He has also been honored by VNIIA in the Russian Federation for his work in fostering nuclear weapon safety collaboration between the U.K. and the R.F.