Design-Based Safety

Scapegoats

Abstract

Rare tragedies with terrible unintended consequences are usually preceded by a history of denial of a past series of related hazardous conditions. Thomas Bayes was a minister better known for his mathematical doctrine of chance, in which a number of similar hazards can become active at the same time to produce disaster. Civic leaders are usually unable to perceive how similar hazards can combine and create a colossal danger to the public. When noted authorities warn of danger and the need for costly safety features, community leaders often try to avoid imposing such costs on the community. When a tragedy does occur, those who could have made a difference often welcome an excuse to avoid accountability. That’s when a scapegoat becomes an acceptable choice.