The Theory of Risk Uncertainty Reduction

Robert Thomas; Marilyn Eichelberger; Missey Lee

doi:10.56094/jss.v54i2.73

Authors

Dr. Robert W. L. Thomas AECOM
Marilyn J. Eichelberger Naval Surface Warfare Center
Missey Lee Naval Surface Warfare Center

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56094/jss.v54i2.73

Keywords:

risk, uncertainty, modeling, mishap probability, distributions

Abstract

The objective of this research is to examine the character of safety programs in not only reducing risk, but also in reducing relative risk uncertainty. This paper approximates the distributions of both the probability and severity of a mishap as lognormal and examines the likely behavior of the co-distribution as the safety process is executed. This paper also shows how differential forces across the risk plane reduce both the risk itself and the relative uncertainty in the risk at the same time. With this new approach, risk now becomes a quantitative item with a known probability distribution, providing a new metric for safety program effectiveness.

Author Biographies

Dr. Robert W. L. Thomas, AECOM

Dr. Robert W. L. Thomas is a scientist at AECOM working on safety issues pertaining to electromagnetic environments near to high-power emitters. He also has experience with the verification and validation of combat systems software with a particular emphasis on critical-timing issues. He has also developed models used by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to scope the independent verification and validation of satellite- and spacecraft-borne software and has designed optical instrumentation for space measurements to characterize planetary atmospheres.

Marilyn J. Eichelberger, Naval Surface Warfare Center

Marilyn J. Eichelberger is currently a member of the Combat Systems Safety Branch at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division. She has 21 years of experience supporting U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps and foreign military programs, of which eight years have been in the role of Principal for Safety.

Missey Lee, Naval Surface Warfare Center

Missey Lee is currently a member of the Combat Systems Safety Branch at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division. She has more than 11 years of experience practicing system safety engineering for the U.S. Navy. Previously, she developed and implemented code for Weapon Systems of the U.S. Navy.